The Post-Petroleum Paradigm -- and Population
by Walter Youngquist, Consulting
Geologist
(Abstract)
"The use of oil has changed world economies, social and political
structures, and lifestyles beyond the effect of any other substance in such a
short time. But oil supplies are limited. The peak of world oil production and
the beginning of the irreversible decline of oil availability is clearly in
sight.
This paper examines the role of oil in two contexts: Its importance in countries
almost entirely dependent on oil income, and the role of oil in world
agricultural productivity. Possible alternatives to oil and its close associate,
natural gas, are also examined. Countries almost solely dependent on oil income
are chiefly those of the Persian Gulf region. The prosperity which oil has
brought to these nations has resulted in a rapidly growing population which is
not sustainable without oil revenues. World agriculture is now highly dependent
on oil and natural gas for fertilizers and pesticides. Without these,
agricultural productivity would markedly decline. As a base for the production
of these materials, oil and natural gas are irreplaceable.
Lifestyles and affluence in the post-petroleum paradigm will be quite different
from today. World population will have to be reduced if it is to exist at any
reasonable standard of living. At that time concern will be much more centered
on obtaining basic resources, especially agricultural, by which to survive."